Analysis of Indonesia’s Car Exports During Vehicle Electrification in Export Destination Countries 2016-2022
September 30, 2024
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The concern for low-emission economic activities has made many countries electrify
vehicles as a step to reduce CO2 emissions. The share of electric vehicle (EV) sales in the world
continues to increase exponentially, accompanied by a decrease in the average price of EVs in the
world. This is feared to threaten Indonesia's car exports, which are dominated by the internal
combustion engine (ICE) type. This study aims to analyze the competitive advantage position of
Indonesia's car exports as well as the factors affecting Indonesia's car exports in the country with
the largest EV share. The research methods used are export products dynamics (EPD) analysis and
unbalanced panel regression analysis. The independent variables used are Indonesia's car export
prices, GDP per capita of destination countries, average EV prices of destination countries, revealed
comparative advantages (RCA) values, and dummy free trade agreements (FTAs). The dependent
variable used is the export value of Indonesia's cars with HS code 8703. The results of the study
using EPD show that most of Indonesia's car exports in destination countries are in a less expected
position, namely falling stars. The results of the regression analysis show that car export prices and
EV prices in destination countries have a significant negative effect. GDP per capita and RCA have
a significant positive effect, while FTA has no effect.
Naufal, M. ., & Artiani, L. E. . (2024). Analysis of Indonesia’s Car Exports During Vehicle Electrification in Export Destination Countries 2016-2022. International Journal on Economics, Finance and Sustainable Development, 6(3), 422–436. https://doi.org/10.31149/ijefsd.v6i8.5313
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Singapura, Thailand, India dan China. Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas
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Applied Economics, Dec(2016).
2. Anggraini, D. (2006). Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Permintaan Ekspor Kopi Indonesia dari Amerika Serikat.
(Unpublished master’s thesis). University of Diponegoro.
3. Association of the Indonesia Automotive Industries. (2022). export_data_jandec_2022. https://files.gaikindo.or.id/.
4. Astuti, N. P., & Maryono. (2018). Environmental Tax to Control Air Pollution from Transport Sector in Yogyakarta
City. Proceeding Biology Education Conference, 15(1): 760-765.
5. Buhmann, K. M., & Criado, J. R. (2023). Consumers’ Preferences for Electric Vehicles: The Role of Status and
Reputation. Transportation Research Part D, 114(2023) 103530.
6. Estherhuizen D. (2006). Measuring and Analyzing Competitiveness in the Agribusiness Sector: Methodological
and Analytical Framework. Pretoria: University of Pretoria.
7. Fadhlurrohman, F. (2021). Pengaruh Luas Lahan, Harga Internasional, Produk Domestik Bruto dan Harga
Substitusi Terhadap Volume Ekspor Minyak Kelapa Sawit Indonesia ke India Periode 1986-2018. (Unpublished
bachelor’s thesis). National University of Islam Syarif Hidayatullah.
8. Gujarati, D. N. (2004). Basic Econometrics, 4th Edition. The McGraw-Hill Inc.
9. Guo, Z., Li, T., Peng, S., & Zhang H. (2021). Environmental and Economic Consequences of The Incentive Policy
on Electric Vehicle Industry: A CGE Based Study in China. Resources, Conservation & Recycling, 169(2021), 105542.
10. Hayakawa, K. (2015). Impacts of FTA Utilization on Firm Performance. BE J. Econ. Anal. Policy, 15(3): 1325–1352.
11. Hortinha, P., Lages, C., & Lages, L. F. (2011). The Trade-Off Between Customer and Technology Orientations:
Impact on Innovation Capabilities and Export Performance. Journal of International Marketing, 19(3): 36-58.
12. Iladini, K., & Agustina, N. (2020). Analisis Time Series Pendekatan Error Correction Mechanism: Pengaruh
Penerapan ACFTA Terhadap Ekspor Kopi Indonesia ke China Periode 2006-2018. Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya
(JSA), 4(2).
13. International Energy Agency. (2023). Global EV Outlook 2023. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook
2023.
14. International Energy Agency. (2023). Global Market Share of Electric Vehicles Within Passenger Car Sales Between
2010 and 2022 [Graph]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1371599/global-ev-market-share/.
15. International
Energy
Agency.
(2023).
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy Highlights.
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-energy-highlights.
16. International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers. (2024). 2022 PRODUCTION STATISTICS.
https://www.oica.net/category/production-statistics/2022-statistics/.
17. Kosmaryati K, Handayani C.A., Isfahani R.N., & Widodo E. (2019). Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi
Kriminalitas di Indonesia Tahun 2011-2016 dengan Regresi Data Panel. Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics.
2(1): 10-20.
18. Li, K., & Wang, L. (2023). Optimal Electric Vehicle Subsidy and Pricing Decisions with Consideration of Ev Anxiety
And Ev Preference In Green And Non-Green Consumers. Transportation Research Part E, 170(2023), 103010.
19. Mahendra, G. W. (2022). Analisis Faktor – Faktor yang Memengaruhi Ekspor Udang Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat
Pada Tahun 1998 – 2020. (Unpublished bachelor’s thesis). University of Islam Indonesia.
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21. Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (2021). Indonesia – Belgia. https://www.kemlu.go.id/brussels/id/pages/indonesia_
_belgia/1667/etc-menu
22. Ministry
of
Trade.
(2023).
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Kinerja
Kementerian
Perdagangan
2022.
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Permintaan Ekspor Minyak Sawit Indonesia di Negara OKI. Jurnal Ekonomi & Kebijakan Publik, 10(2): 111-124.
24. Nugraha, A. A., Darsono, Marwanti, S. (2023). Analisis Daya Saing Kompetitif Ekspor Pisang Indonesia di Pasar
Internasional. UMJember Proceeding Series 2(3): 167-173.
25. Qodri, M. I. A., & Widyastutik. (2023). Kebijakan Rendah Emisi Negara Anggota G20 dan Kinerja Ekspor
Kendaraan Bermotor Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan, 12(1): 41-68.
26. Raharyo, A., Mertawan, G. A., & Baskoro, R. (2022). Competitive Advantage Between Indonesia and Thailand on
Electric Vehicle Manufacturing. Journal of Economics and Business Aseanomics, 7(2): 101-121.
27. Schmidt, G. M., & Porteus, L. M. (2000). The Impact of an Integrated Marketing and Manufacturing Innovation.
Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2(4): 317-336.
28. Setyawati, I. K., Lin, Y. S., Setiawan, B. (2014). Analisis Permintaan Ekspor Karet Alam Indonesia ke Amerika
Serikat. AGRISE, 14(2). 89-106.
29. Statista
Market
Insights.
(2023).
Electric
Vehicles.
https://www.statista.com/outlook/mmo/electric
vehicles/worldwide.
30. Statista. (2024). Production of cars in China from 2010 to 2022, by type(in 1,000 units).
https://www.statista.com/statistics/281133/car-production-in-china/.
31. Trade
Statistics
for
International
Business
Development.
(2024).
Trade
Map Database.
https://www.trademap.org/Index.aspx.
32. United Nations Comtrade. (2024). Trade Data. https://comtradeplus.un.org/.
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determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. https://unfccc.int/ndc-synthesis-report-2023.
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Towards Sustainability: Comparison Between EV, HEV, PHEV, and ICE Vehicles To Achieve Net Zero Emissions
by 2050 from EV”. Alexandria Engineering Journal, 82(2023). 459–467.
35. Wicaksono B.W., Wibowo E.W., Karjono A., & Aditya A. (2022). The Effect of Liquidity, Solvency and Company
Size on Financial Performance in Property and Real 102 Estate Companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange
2016-2020. LITERATUS. 4(2): 746–757.
36. Widarjono, Agus. (2013). Ekonometrika Pengantar dan Aplikasinya Edisi Keempat. Yogyakarta, UPP STIM YKPN.
37. World Bank. (2024). GDP per capita (current US$). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD.
38. Yatik, V. (2018). Pengaruh Variabel Ekonomi Makro Terhadap Ekspor Biji Kakao Indonesia ke Malaysia,
Singapura, Thailand, India dan China. Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas
Brawijaya, 6(2).
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