Total New Hiv Infections In Gabon: A Box-Jenkins Arima Approach

  • Smartson. P. NYONI ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  • Thabani NYONI Department of Economics, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Keywords: new HIV, infections, Gabon, Box-Jenkins, Arima, Approach

Abstract

Using annual time series data on the total number of new HIV infections in Gabon from 1990 – 2018, the study makes predictions for the period 2019 – 2030. The paper employs the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, H, the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) model as the parsimonious model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is very stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the study indicate that the total number of new HIV infections in Gabon is likely to continue declining over the out-of-sample period.

References

[1] Boukandou, M. M. M., et al. (2018). Review of Gabonese Traditional Plants That Have Reported Anti-HIV Activity, Indian Journal of Traditional Knowledge, 17 (3): 414 – 424.
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[4] Nyoni, T. (2018a). Modeling and Forecasting Naira/USD Exchange Rate in Nigeria: A Box-Jenkins ARIMA Approach, MPRA Paper No. 88622, University Library of Munich, Munich, Germany.
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Published
2020-10-03
How to Cite
[1]
Smartson. P. NYONI and Thabani NYONI 2020. Total New Hiv Infections In Gabon: A Box-Jenkins Arima Approach . International Journal on Integrated Education. 3, 10 (Oct. 2020), 1-5. DOI:https://doi.org/10.17605/ijie.v3i10.648.
Section
Articles